Malaysia says it has flattened the Covid-19 curve. But at what cost?
This article is originally published on SCMP. Posted here by Naylii Sophea for educational purposes only.
Malaysia appears to have flattened the Covid-19 curve but according to experts, the country is paying the cost in lost jobs, mental
health issues and an upswing in economic woes.
Until recently, the country was the worst hit
by the disease in Southeast Asia, but officials said the national lockdown put
in place on March 18 – under which schools and non-essential businesses have been
closed, and social gatherings prohibited – had helped slow the spread of the
disease.
"The movement control order has
succeeded in flattening the curve and our country is entering the recovery
phase," said the nation’s health director general Noor Hisham Abdullah earlier
this week, pointing out that daily increases in cases had remained in double
digits since April 16.
Malaysia has 6,002 confirmed cases of
Covid-19, and has reported 102 deaths. Singapore now has the most cases in the
region, with more than 16,000 infections, and has reported 14 deaths.
Although Malaysia’s lockdown is set to
continue until May 12, with a further extension expected to prevent mass
gatherings during Eid ul-Fitr celebrations at the end of the month, the fight
against Covid-19 is taking a toll in other ways.
In a survey released on Thursday, think tank
The Centre found that 50 per cent of respondents reported experiencing varying
levels of negative mental well-being during the lockdown, with 22 per cent
saying they were going through severe or extremely severe anxiety.
Women and those below the age of 35 reported
higher levels of negative emotions, with up to 26 per cent of women saying they
experienced severe and extremely severe depression, anxiety, and stress.
People living in
low-cost housing also reported more extreme signs of all three conditions.
“This highlights a need to review how low-cost housing is designed and built,
to take into consideration mental health implications,” said The Centre in a
statement.
Although there is
no set metric for what constitutes flattening the curve – the term refers to
slowing the rate of increase so as not to overburden the health care system –
Malaysia has done well in managing the virus outbreak, said Dr Helmy Haja Mydin
of Pantai Hospital Kuala Lumpur, who specialises in respiratory diseases.
"Each country has
its own metric, largely influenced by socioeconomic consequences as well," he
said. "For Malaysia, the numbers are a good snapshot of our progress but
economic nuances must also be factored in."
According to the
Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), the pandemic will have "devastating" effects on the Malaysian economy from external factors such as
global supply and demand shocks as well as domestic factors such as the
lockdown.
In a report, the
local think tank said this would disproportionately impact small and
medium-sized enterprises – which make up more than 90 per cent of the nation’s
economy – and vulnerable groups such as lower-income individuals and workers.
Although Prime
Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has announced that some restrictions will be lifted,
allowing for the slow reopening of businesses, experts said an exit strategy
for the lockdown must be properly thought out so as to not “waste” the ground
gained so far.
"Certain things
must remain banned, such as interstate travel so that people do not rush to
their hometowns for Eid celebrations," said Helmy from Pantai Hospital.
"Relaxations must
be done based on ongoing data, and businesses allowed to reopen must have a
continuity plan to show that they are able to prepare appropriate protection
for staff and clients."
Although the
lockdown has kept Malaysia’s fatality rate below 2 per cent, the government
last week said it was estimating daily losses of 2.4 billion ringgit (US$550
million) while businesses remained closed.
The Malaysian
Institute of Economic Research on April 25 estimated that around 2.4 million
Malaysians could lose their jobs if the lockdown was extended for two weeks
past May 12.
Meanwhile, migrant
workers and refugees are taking the brunt of negative opinions, with some
Malaysians demanding that the country’s resources should only be spent on its
citizens.
The government has
announced a 260 billion stimulus package to help the economy weather the storm.
"This period is
critical, as it is a litmus test on whether the lessons learned and culture
formed during the movement control order have become a habit observed by all
members of society," said ISIS researchers Zarina Zainuddin, Ariane Yasmin and
Muhammad Sinatra in a report.
Sharifa Ezat Wan
Puteh, a professor of health economics and public health at the National
University of Malaysia, said despite its economic consequences, if the lockdown
had not been taken to curtail the spread of Covid-19, the disease “could have
infected many more people and caused much loss of life”
"If we use the
human capital approach, the cost of disease management and deaths would have
greatly outweighed the economic costs," she said. "However, perhaps better
infrastructure and care of single mothers, disabled and marginalised
communities need to be looked at again."
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